Anne Marie Lorusso, sales representative

We have a very strong sales of 3,393 sales reported to the Toronto Real Estate Board so far in the first 13 days of August. 

It is estimated that we’ll come in around 7,500 to 8,000 sales for this month which easily beats last August (6,318) by about 22%. The best August on record was 2007 with 8,059 so there’s a small chance we’ll beat that.

I’m confident the sales numbers would be much higher if there were a little bit more inventory available. Currently we have only 16,400 homes for sale. This is approx 3,000 or 14% fewer than that crazy August in 2007. Inventory numbers are critically low.

As we all know the “real inventory” (fairly priced homes in a decent area in decent condition) is turning over immediately with multiple offers. There has been no summer lull this year. The fall is going to be very interesting!

Another interesting tidbit: We have 8,600 or 35% fewer homes for sale now than 2008.

Well, we beat the estimates again.  Two weeks ago, it was predicted that there would be 9,000 to 9,500 sales in July.  The market never slowed at all and in July 2009 we hit 9,951 sales reported to the Toronto Real Estate Board!!!!! 

 This next part is what is VERY important to pay attention to…

 Right now the number of homes available for sale is at a critically low level. I’m going to repeat information from my previous message with some updated numbers. The number of sales this July jumped 27% over last year.  The inventory has shrunk by 38% during the same time.

 Currently the Absorption Rate (the percentage of inventory selling each month) is at an all time high. When the Absorption Rate (monthly # of sales/inventory) increases it causes prices to climb. When the number of  sales increases, that’s good news. When the inventory can’t keep up with the  number of sales .. That’s BIG news.

 Currently there are only 16,446 homes for sale. That means over 60% of the inventory is selling each month.  History has shown us that an Absorption Rate of approx 30 – 35% give us a steady increase in prices.  Anything above  that causes prices to SHOOT up! See below for some examples from the past several years. If you look at it, you’ll see the pattern and identify that unless we get a huge influx of inventory (highly unlikely) prices are going to shoot up this fall. The big thing that could lower the number of sales is a failing economy. Well, according to the Bank of Canada, … the recession is OVER!

 Month       # of Sales        Inventory          Absorption Rate

 July/09       9,951                     16,446                   60%

 July/08       7,806                    26,543                  29%

 July/07       8,912                     20,694                  43%

 July/04       7,329                    22,368                  33%

 July/01        5,807                    19,484                   30%

 July/98       5,026                    20,559                  24%

 July/95       3,721                     27,610                   13%

Starting April 21, 2006, consumers will receive a $500 rebate when they
replace an inefficient central air conditioner with a new ENERGYSTAR® qualified system.   There is a $50 rebate for those who have their central air conditioner tuned up by a registered participating contractor, and a $75 rebate on the supply and installation of a programmable thermostat.

To undertake the Cool Savings program, the Conservation Bureau has
partnered with the Heating, Refrigeration, and Air Conditioning Institute (HRAI) and has designed a program that will help reduce peak demand for electricity this summer and reduce overall demand during
cooling seasons for years to come.

For consumer information call   1-888-668-4636.